Welcome Bonus Expected Value Calculator
Type in your qualifying-bet odds. The calculator computes the expected dollar value of each VT welcome offer (DraftKings $200 instant, FanDuel $200 instant, Fanatics $500 daily-drip) so you can compare apples to apples.
Welcome Offer EV Calculator
EV calculations assume: bonus bets cash convert at ~73% of face value (typical for bonus bets used on ~+100 markets); ~4.55% house edge on $5 qualifying bet; ~4.55% expected loss on Fanatics' daily $50 wagers. Bonus bet conversion varies with your usage — long-shot bonus bets convert at higher rates, short-favorite usage at lower.
FanDuel: New customers only. Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How the Numbers Work
DraftKings (instant)
EV = $200 in bonus bets × ~73% conversion – $5 × 4.55% house edge ≈ $145.77. The qualifying bet's win/loss doesn't affect the bonus — it triggers either way.
FanDuel (instant)
EV = $200 in bonus bets × ~73% conversion – $5 × 4.55% house edge ≈ $145.77. FanDuel now matches DraftKings: the $200 credits win or lose, so your qualifying-bet odds don't change the bonus — only the small house-edge cost on the $5 qualifying bet applies.
Fanatics (daily drip)
If you'll wager $50/day anyway: EV = $500 × 73% – $0 incremental cost = $365.00.
If you wouldn't wager daily: EV = $500 × 73% – $500 × 4.55% house edge = $342.25. Even paying the full house-edge cost of $500 in wagers, Fanatics still has the highest EV — but you have to commit 10 days of activity to claim it.