Interactive Tool

Welcome Bonus Expected Value Calculator

Type in your qualifying-bet odds. The calculator computes the expected dollar value of each VT welcome offer (DraftKings $200 instant, FanDuel $300 win-and-get, Fanatics $500 daily-drip) so you can compare apples to apples.

Welcome Offer EV Calculator

Qualifying bet odds (American)

Qualifying bet stake ($)

Daily wager you'd place anyway (Fanatics) If you'd wager $50+ daily anyway, set to 50. If not, set to 0 to see the offer's "cost-of-claim".

DraftKings Bet $5, Get $200 (instant) Expected Value $0.00 --

FanDuel Bet $5, Get $300 (only if bet wins) Expected Value $0.00 --

Fanatics $50/day × 10 days = up to $500 Expected Value $0.00 --

EV calculations assume: bonus bets cash convert at ~73% of face value (typical for bonus bets used on ~+100 markets); ~4.55% house edge on $5 qualifying bet; ~4.55% expected loss on Fanatics' daily $50 wagers. Bonus bet conversion varies with your usage; long-shot bonus bets convert at higher rates, short-favorite usage at lower.

How the Numbers Work

DraftKings (instant)

EV = $200 in bonus bets × ~73% conversion – $5 × 4.55% house edge ≈ $145.77. The qualifying bet's win/loss doesn't affect the bonus; it triggers either way.

FanDuel (conditional)

EV = $300 × 73% conversion × P(qualifying bet wins) – $5 × 4.55% house edge. P(win) is derived from your qualifying-bet odds. At –200 (66.7% win prob), EV ≈ $145.78. At a coin-flip –100 (50%), EV ≈ $109.27. At +200 (33.3%), EV ≈ $72.77. Heavy favorites maximize the FanDuel EV.

Fanatics (daily drip)

If you'll wager $50/day anyway: EV = $500 × 73% – $0 incremental cost = $365.00.

If you wouldn't wager daily: EV = $500 × 73% – $500 × 4.55% house edge = $342.25. Even paying the full house-edge cost of $500 in wagers, Fanatics still has the highest EV; but you have to commit 10 days of activity to claim it.