Moneyline Bet

What a Moneyline Bet Is

A moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the game outright. There's no point spread, no overtime exclusion (in most cases), no complexity. The team you pick has to win; that's it. The price you pay depends on whether your team is favored or an underdog.

How American Odds Work

US sportsbooks (including all three in Vermont) quote moneylines in American odds, with a positive or negative sign:

• Negative odds (–150, –200, –300): The team is the favorite. The number tells you how much you must wager to win $100 profit. A $150 bet at –150 wins $100. A $300 bet at –300 wins $100.
• Positive odds (+120, +250, +500): The team is the underdog. The number tells you how much profit you win on a $100 bet. A $100 bet at +250 wins $250 profit (total return $350).

Vermont Example; Celtics at Knicks

Suppose the Boston Celtics are road favorites at the New York Knicks:

• Celtics: –180 (favorite, must win to pay out)
• Knicks: +160 (underdog, must win for the bet to cash)

A $90 moneyline on the Celtics returns $50 in profit ($140 total) if they win. A $50 bet on the Knicks at +160 returns $80 in profit ($130 total) if they pull the upset. Either way, the score doesn't matter; only who wins.

Implied Probability; What the Odds Are Telling You

You can convert American odds into the sportsbook's implied win probability:

• Negative odds: odds / (odds + 100) × 100. So –180 implies 180/280 = 64.3% win probability.
• Positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100) × 100. So +160 implies 100/260 = 38.5% win probability.

Notice these add to ~103%, not 100%. That extra ~3% is the sportsbook's house edge ("vig" or "juice"). If your true estimate of the Celtics' win probability is higher than 64.3%, the –180 moneyline is a positive-EV bet.

When to Use a Moneyline

Moneylines are best when:

• You have strong conviction on the winner but no view on the spread
• The favorite is so heavy that the spread is unappealing (basketball games with a 20-point spread)
• You're betting an underdog you think will win straight up (not just cover)
• You're building a parlay where each leg only needs to win outright

Operator Notes for Vermont

All three VT operators offer moneylines on every major sport. FanDuel typically prices the tightest moneylines on NFL and NBA; meaning lower vig and better value for the bettor. DraftKings often has slightly better prices on hockey and on Boston-team favorites. Fanatics is competitive but generally not the sharpest. Line-shopping across all three is the single most reliable edge available to a Vermont bettor.