Futures Bet
Long-term wagers that settle at the end of a season or major event; Super Bowl winner, Stanley Cup, MVP, division winner. Your money is locked up until the bet resolves.
What a Futures Bet Is
A futures bet is a wager on an outcome that won't resolve until weeks or months from now. The most common futures markets:
- Championship futures: Super Bowl winner, NBA Champion, World Series winner, Stanley Cup, College Football National Champion
- Award futures: NFL MVP, NBA MVP, ROY, Cy Young, Hart Trophy
- Conference / division winners: AFC champion, NL East division winner
- Regular-season win totals: "Patriots: over/under 9.5 wins"
- Long-shot props: Will a perfect game be thrown this MLB season? Will any team go undefeated?
Vermont Example; Celtics to Win NBA Title
In late October at the start of the NBA season, Vermont operators might post:
- Celtics +400 to win the NBA Championship
- Celtics +180 to win the Eastern Conference
- Celtics over 56.5 regular-season wins
- Jayson Tatum +700 for MVP
A $100 bet on Celtics +400 returns $400 in profit if Boston wins the title (about 7 months from now). If they lose anywhere along the way; first round, conference finals, NBA Finals; the bet is dead. Your $100 is locked up the entire season.
Why Futures Markets Have High House Edge
Futures markets carry significantly more "hold" (cumulative house edge across all outcomes) than game lines. A typical NFL Super Bowl futures market sums to 130–145% implied probability across all 32 teams; meaning the book holds 30–45 cents on every dollar. Compare to a single moneyline at –110 / –110 where the hold is roughly 4.55%.
The high hold reflects (1) the operator carrying your money for months without payout, (2) the wide range of possible outcomes, and (3) low liquidity that doesn't get sharpened by market action.
Where Futures Edge Lives
Despite high hold, futures markets have edge for patient bettors:
- Early-season odds before public money: Patriots win totals in July before training camp may be off the consensus by 1+ wins
- Award futures with narrative bias: Last year's runner-up often gets bet up past true value
- Long-shots with role/health changes: A backup QB becoming the starter mid-season can have stale MVP odds
- Hedging closer to resolution: If your futures pick is in the conference final, you can hedge at game lines for guaranteed profit
Cashout
All three VT operators offer "cash out" on futures; they'll buy back your ticket at a discounted price if your bet is currently winning. Cashing out a Celtics +400 ticket before the Finals start, when they're heavy favorites, might lock in $250 instead of risking the full $400 swing. Cashouts pay less than the bet's true current value (the operator takes 5–15% margin) but eliminate variance.
Operator Notes for Vermont
FanDuel and DraftKings have the largest futures catalogs and best pricing on mainstream futures. Fanatics covers the major futures but with thinner long-shot pricing. Always shop futures across all three; a +400 vs +450 on the same team is a 12.5% EV swing.
Bankroll Considerations
Money in futures is illiquid. Don't tie up bankroll you'll need for game-by-game wagers. A common approach: cap futures exposure at 10–15% of betting bankroll, and treat the locked-up money as written off until resolution.